The Growing Pressures on Food Systems

• Climate-induced droughts and extreme weather events
• Agriculture as a primary driver of environmental degradation
• Biodiversity loss and nitrogen pollution

The food system is facing unprecedented challenges, and experts warn that a transition to more sustainable practices is not only advisable but inevitable. The pressures on food systems worldwide are growing, driven by a combination of factors including climate change, economic shocks, and resource constraints. One of the key drivers of these pressures is the impact of agriculture on the environment. Agriculture is a significant contributor to greenhouse gas emissions, biodiversity loss, and nitrogen pollution. At the same time, food production is becoming increasingly exposed to the effects of extreme weather, economic shocks, and resource constraints.

Evidence of these Pressures

The effects of these pressures are already being felt. For example, a major flooding event in Australia in 2025 submerged an area larger than the United Kingdom, resulting in significant livestock losses. Such events are becoming more frequent and severe, posing a growing challenge to the stability of global food trade.

Structural Risks

• Simultaneous crop failures in key agricultural regions
• Disruptions to global food trade
• Increased vulnerability to climate-related shocks

Beyond episodic shocks, longer-term structural risks are also becoming clearer. A study published in 2019 found that the probability of simultaneous crop failures in key agricultural regions increases sharply under 1.5 degrees Celsius and 2 degrees C warming scenarios. Such disruptions, when they affect multiple breadbasket regions at once, pose a growing challenge to the stability of global food trade.

Policy Sequencing

“Policy sequencing” is a strategy in which reforms are introduced incrementally, each lowering the barriers to the next.
According to Paul Behrens, a British Academy Global professor at the University of Oxford, a shift toward more plant-based diets is not only advisable but likely inevitable. This view is grounded not in consumer preference, but in biophysical constraints and economic modeling. As land, water and energy demands tighten — and as climate disruptions multiply — resource-intensive food systems may simply become unviable at scale. The EAT-Lancet Commission report suggests that dietary shifts can significantly reduce environmental impacts. Work from Behrens’ team adds that such transitions also reduce the land, labor, and capital intensity of food production. These factors matter economically: many producers operate with high levels of debt and depend on infrastructure that is increasingly exposed to climate risk — conditions that make the system more sensitive to disruption.

A Long-term Policy Approach

• Emphasizing resilience
• Equity
• Risk reduction

Managing this transition, Behrens suggested, will likely require a long-term policy approach that emphasizes resilience, equity, and risk reduction. From a policy perspective, one implication is clear: failure to anticipate these risks may leave decision-makers with fewer — and more costly — options in the future.

The Importance of Anticipating Risks

From a policy perspective, the importance of anticipating these risks cannot be overstated. Failure to anticipate these risks may lead to a lack of preparedness, which can result in costly and unintended consequences. As Behrens noted, “whether dietary change arrives through deliberate reform or reactive disruption remains to be seen, but it is inevitable. The structural pressures are well-documented, and their effects are already visible in both physical and economic terms.”

Food System Disruptions: A Transition of Unavoidable Proportions

The Growing Pressures on Food Systems

• Climate-induced droughts and extreme weather events
• Agriculture as a primary driver of environmental degradation
• Biodiversity loss and nitrogen pollution

The food system is facing unprecedented challenges, and experts warn that a transition to more sustainable practices is not only advisable but inevitable. The structural pressures are well-documented, and their effects are already visible in both physical and economic terms.”

Experts Weigh In

“This transition is going to happen one way or another,” said Paul Behrens, British Academy Global professor at the University of Oxford. Behrens studies food systems at the Oxford Martin School, where his research focuses on modeling how producers and consumers interact through trade, and how structural reforms might increase the resilience of global food supply chains.

A Shift Toward Plant-Based Diets

• Biophysical constraints and economic modeling
• Reducing environmental impacts
• Reducing land, labor, and capital intensity

According to Behrens, a shift toward more plant-based diets is not only advisable but likely inevitable.

A Policy Approach

1. Revising agricultural subsidies
2. Adjusting procurement policies
3. Investing in climate-resilient food infrastructure

According to Behrens, whether dietary change arrives through deliberate reform or reactive disruption remains to be seen, but it is inevitable. The structural pressures are well-documented, and their effects are already visible in both physical and economic terms. Managing this transition, Behrens suggested, will likely require a long-term policy approach that emphasizes resilience, equity, and risk reduction.

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