Kazakhstan has long been a significant player in the energy sector, but the country is also grappling with the challenge of transitioning to a low-carbon economy. Two recent studies on energy transition in Kazakhstan provide valuable insights into both expert and public perceptions of current energy transition policies.

Expert Perceptions: Assessing Strengths and Weaknesses

A research team led by Jessica Neafie, assistant professor at the Department of Political Science and International Relations at Nazarbayev University, conducted a governance assessment of Kazakhstan’s energy transition. The study employed a SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats) analysis, involving in-depth interviews with 15 experts in the field.

• The study highlighted Kazakhstan’s strengths in introducing robust market mechanisms, such as the emissions trading system, as well as strong policy support through new regulations, laws, and updated ecological codes.
• These efforts create opportunities for green financing, global partnerships, and increased corporate investment in green technologies.

However, the study also identified weaknesses that might hinder Kazakhstan’s transition to renewables. These concerns include:

1. Economic stability and regulatory environment are among the weaknesses that might hinder Kazakhstan from shifting to renewables.
2. Lack of local experience, transparency, and asymmetric information are also identified as weaknesses in the study.

According to Neafie, these weaknesses are significant because:
“Kazakhstan is still highly reliant on fossil fuels and it leads to ineffectiveness of financial mechanisms. On top of that, the regulatory environment is very unstable in Kazakhstan. Even though the government tries to be proactive and tries to introduce new regulations to support the market, the unstable environment makes it very difficult for companies to invest.”

Public Perceptions: Awareness and Support

Another study by Saniya Soltybayeva, a PhD candidate at Nazarbayev University, aimed to understand public perceptions on energy transition and economic diversification. The study involved a questionnaire completed by 1,014 respondents from 18 cities across Kazakhstan. The study found that:

• Most respondents (93%) understand the consequences of climate change.
• A higher level of awareness is observed among men, as well as residents of large cities, particularly in the economically active population.

Regarding the potential benefits of energy transition, the study found that:

• Most respondents (68.7%) believe that divesting from fossil fuels will bring positive changes to their lives.
• The overwhelming majority of people responded that this would be achieved by improving air quality and the health of the people living in these cities.

However, the study also identified concerns centered on:

• Potential job displacement, with 63.3% of respondents expressing worry about this issue.
• Most people believe that the transition to renewables will create new jobs, but this is particularly true for the working-age population and in coal mining regions.

On the positive side, the study found that:

• High public support for renewable energy, with almost 77% of respondents in favor of renewables, especially solar and wind energy.
• 55.2% of respondents think that the transition to renewables will create new jobs.

The findings of these two studies provide valuable insights into both expert and public perceptions of current energy transition policies in Kazakhstan. They can inform policymakers and help overcome hurdles to a successful energy transition.

In conclusion, the studies highlight the complexities and challenges of energy transition in Kazakhstan. However, they also provide a roadmap for policymakers to address the weaknesses and capitalize on the strengths of the country’s energy transition governance. Recommendations for policymakers:
* Address the weaknesses in the energy transition governance, particularly economic stability and regulatory environment. * Leverage the strengths in introducing robust market mechanisms and strong policy support to promote green financing, global partnerships, and increased corporate investment in green technologies. * Foster public awareness and support for renewable energy, and address concerns about job displacement and regulatory environment. By implementing these recommendations, Kazakhstan can move closer to a successful energy transition and achieve its goals of becoming a leader in renewable energy.

References

The first study was conducted by Jessica Neafie, assistant professor at the Department of Political Science and International Relations at Nazarbayev University, and her team. The second study was conducted by Saniya Soltybayeva, a PhD candidate at Nazarbayev University.

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