Climate change is having a profound impact on India’s monsoon seasons, leading to extended summer-like conditions and more frequent, intense, and unpredictable rainfall events. A recent study by the IPE-Global and Esri India has found that eight out of ten districts in India are projected to experience multiple instances of such extreme weather events by 2030.
Key Findings of the Study
- Eight out of ten districts in India are projected to experience multiple instances of extreme heat and rainfall events by 2030, according to the study.
- Monsoon seasons in India are witnessing an extended summer-like condition, except on non-rainy days.
- Heatwave days in India have increased by 15 times and extreme heatwave days have increased by 19 times in the last three decades.
The Study’s Methodology
The study uses a dynamic ensemble climate modeling approach to project and map scenarios for 2030 and 2040. It generates empirical evidence on the exposure of Indian districts to extreme heatwaves and incessant, erratic rainfall events.
Implications of the Study
The study’s findings have significant implications for India’s climate resilience. It highlights the need for comprehensive risk assessments at the hyper-local level and the importance of embracing hyper-granular risk assessments and establish climate-risk observatories to safeguard Indian agriculture, industry, and large-scale infrastructure projects from the vagaries of climate change.
Expert Insights
Abinash Mohanty, Head of the Climate Change and Sustainability Practice at IPE Global and the lead author of the study, noted, “The study and its stark findings suggest how climate change has exposed India to extreme heat and rainfall and the situation is going to be grimmer and harsher by 2030 with majority of the urban centres impacted the most.”
Ashwajit Singh, Founder and Managing Director of IPE Global, said, “Climate and development pathways are intricately linked. Nearly all countries of the Global South face the dual challenge of improving living conditions for large segments of their population while simultaneously adapting to the consequences of climate change.”
Recommendations
The study recommends that risk assessment principles should form the cornerstone of India’s strategy to build resilience against heatwaves and extreme rainfall. It proposes establishing a Climate Risk Observatory (CRO) to provide real-time and predictive information on chronic and acute heat risks at a hyper-granular level.
Agendra Kumar, Managing Director, Esri India, said, “The growing intensity and frequency of extreme heat and rainfall events across India are no longer rare occurrences—they are signals of a shifting climate reality impacting lives, livelihoods, and infrastructure.”
| Recommendations | Details |
| Establish a Climate Risk Observatory (CRO) | A CRO can provide real-time and predictive information on chronic and acute heat risks at a hyper-granular level, enabling policymakers, city planners, businesses, and the public to make informed decisions to mitigate, adapt, and prepare for the risks posed by climate change. |
| Devising risk financing instruments | The study suggests devising risk financing instruments to mitigate the impacts of heatwaves and extreme rainfall events. |
| Appoint heat-risk-champions | The study recommends appointing heat-risk-champions within district disaster management committees to prioritize and coordinate heat-risk mitigation efforts at the district level. |
Conclusion
The study’s findings highlight the need for India to take proactive measures to build resilience against heatwaves and extreme rainfall events.
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